“If persons knowingly tabulate ballots cast by individuals identified by federal agencies as noncitizens, they risk becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime.”
That sentence comes from an Oct. 16 Justice Department letter to Los Angeles County, and the word carrying it is “knowingly.” The same evening Trump posted that California election officials “will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have now sued to stop it. The coverage reports the suit. Nobody has set the list behind the threat next to the lists the same agencies produced earlier this year, and that record decides whether anyone can “knowingly” do anything.
What the Suit Asks For
The plaintiffs are Schumer, Jeffries, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Governors Association. The case sits in federal court in Washington before Chief Judge James Boasberg.
The defendants are Trump, the Justice Department, Attorney General Todd Blanche, the Department of Homeland Security and Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
They want an order barring the administration from purging legally registered voters or denying them ballots. They also want a ruling that it illegally threatened state election officials with prosecution, which the complaint frames as a Voting Rights Act violation.
The Justice Department’s answer was one sentence: election integrity is a top priority and its actions are “grounded in law and under court litigation.”
The threat has a specific origin. On Oct. 15 the department sued California to stop it counting mail ballots from roughly 20,000 people it calls “likely” noncitizens. It had delivered the names on a password-protected thumb drive with a 48-hour deadline, and California declined to act on a list it called unsubstantiated.
The List Against the Lists
Here is the table the suit coverage leaves out. Every row is a federal claim about noncitizens on voter rolls and what became of it.
| Claim | Who made it | Number claimed | What came after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada rolls, July 16 | DHS, in a letter from Mullin | 15,903 | By mid-August DHS itself cited 185 “potential” noncitizens, and Nevada says its records show those 185 are citizens |
| California rolls, July | DHS, via Mullin | 190,832 | 28 people charged in a Justice Department sweep, about one per 6,815 names |
| California ballots, October | Justice Department | 20,000 | California says the department has not provided evidence and calls the list unsubstantiated |
| Nationwide, 1996 to July 2026 | Federal prosecutors | n/a | 129 people charged under the “voting by aliens” statute, 73 convictions or pleas |
The arithmetic is short. DHS’s own Nevada figure fell from 15,903 to 185, which leaves about 1.2 percent of the original claim. Nevada’s lawyers then wrote on Sept. 23 that the “voter case numbers” DHS relied on are not proof of identity or citizenship.
California’s list is about 10.5 percent of its July number, which is 20,000 over 190,832. Treat that as a caveat, not a finding. The July figure counted people who “might be registered” and the October one counts people sent ballots, so they measure different things.
What they share is a source. Both come from federal matching of voter files against immigration records, the method that failed in Nevada. We covered the 28 charges when they came out, and every one of those defendants is a green-card holder, which fits what Reuters found nationally: of the 62 defendants whose status could be determined, 49 were lawful permanent residents.
Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter has said each investigation turns up bigger numbers. In Nevada, the one place anyone has checked, the number got smaller.
Why “Knowingly” Decides It
Prosecutors would have to prove two things. First, that a noncitizen actually voted in a federal election. Second, that the election official knowingly took part and meant it to succeed, which is the aiding-and-abetting standard.
Constitutional scholar Mark Graber told Newsweek: “If the voter’s status is disputed, the official could not have known that the voter is a noncitizen.” He called the jail talk “political puffery.”
A list that is wrong about Nevada cannot supply knowledge in California. A defense lawyer would hold up the Nevada table and rest.
So what is the letter for? We think the answer is plain. It cannot support a prosecution, so its job is to make county staff afraid to finish a count, twelve days out, and the president’s post is the part meant to be seen.
That is intimidation of people doing a job the Constitution gives to the states, and it is why the suit deserves to win. Boasberg should rule before counting begins, and the department should withdraw the letter and publish the names so California can check them.
If the list is as good as Trump says, it will survive being read. Nevada’s did not.