The 2026 midterm elections are officially underway. Voters in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas are heading to the polls today in the first major primary contests of the cycle, and the results could reshape the battle for control of both the Senate and the House.
Rachel Maddow will anchor MS NOW’s primetime election coverage starting at 9 PM ET, joined by Nicolle Wallace, Chris Hayes, Lawrence O’Donnell, and the rest of the network’s lineup for what promises to be one of the most consequential primary nights in recent memory.
These aren’t just appetizer races. The Texas Senate primaries alone have drawn nearly $100 million in advertising, and the outcomes tonight could determine whether Texas becomes a genuine general election battleground for the first time in three decades. Here’s everything you need to know before the polls close.
The Main Event: Texas Republican Senate Primary
This is the race everyone will be watching when the first results start rolling in after 8 PM ET. Four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn is fighting for his political survival against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, both of whom are attacking him from the right.
If Cornyn loses tonight or fails to avoid a runoff, it would mark the first time a sitting senator has been denied renomination by their own party since Republican Richard Lugar of Indiana back in 2012. The stakes are enormous. Cornyn himself has warned that nominating Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the Senate, would hand Democrats their best shot at winning a Texas statewide race since 1994.
Recent polling from Emerson College showed Paxton with a narrow edge heading into election day. President Trump has notably declined to endorse anyone in this race, even after appearing with all three candidates at a recent Corpus Christi event. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two finishers will head to a May 26 runoff.
Texas Democratic Senate Primary: Crockett vs. Talarico
The Democratic side is just as heated, though for entirely different reasons. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are squaring off in a race that exposes a strategic fault line within the party: should Democrats energize their base with a fighter, or try to win over moderate and independent voters with a unifying message?
Crockett, who represents Dallas, has positioned herself as a nationally recognized progressive voice willing to go toe-to-toe with Republicans. Talarico has pitched himself as the candidate who can win over voters across the political spectrum in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in over 30 years. Emerson’s final poll gave Talarico a slight edge, but this one could easily go either way.
The winner will face either Cornyn, Paxton, or Hunt in November in what could be the most competitive Texas Senate race in a generation.
North Carolina Senate: Setting the Stage for Cooper vs. Whatley
North Carolina’s primaries are expected to formalize a marquee general election showdown. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, widely popular across the state, cleared the primary field when he announced his candidacy. On the Republican side, former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley has Trump’s endorsement but faces challengers from the far right who argue their views are more aligned with the president’s agenda.
Both Cooper and Whatley are already trading attacks as if the primary is a formality. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008, but Cooper’s statewide name recognition and approval ratings make this one of the party’s best pickup opportunities. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET, making North Carolina the first results of the evening.
Texas House Races: Redistricting, Scandal, and Generational Change
The Texas House primaries are loaded with drama, largely thanks to the Republican-led redistricting effort Trump pushed last summer that redraws five Democratic-held seats.
TX-23: Tony Gonzales vs. Brandon Herrera. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales was already facing a rematch against pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who came within a few hundred votes of beating him in 2024. But the race was upended by allegations that Gonzales had an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide. Multiple Republican colleagues have called on him to resign. Even with Trump’s endorsement, Gonzales is in serious trouble.
TX-18: Al Green vs. Christian Menefee. This is the generational showdown of the night. After redistricting forced two Democratic incumbents into the same district, 78-year-old Rep. Al Green, who made national headlines at last week’s State of the Union for holding a protest sign before being escorted out, faces 37-year-old Rep. Christian Menefee. Polling shows Menefee with a commanding lead. If Green loses, it marks another chapter in the post-Biden push for younger Democratic leadership.
TX-2: Dan Crenshaw Under Fire. Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the combat veteran who lost an eye in Afghanistan, is facing a primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, backed by Sen. Ted Cruz. Crenshaw is notably the only Texas House Republican incumbent who did not receive Trump’s endorsement. A Crenshaw loss would send a clear message to Republicans who occasionally break with the party line.
TX-21: Mark Teixeira’s Political Debut. In one of the cycle’s more unusual entries, former New York Yankees star Mark Teixeira is the front-runner in a crowded GOP field for the open seat left by retiring Rep. Chip Roy. Teixeira has Trump’s backing and leads a packed primary in the Hill Country district between Austin and San Antonio.
North Carolina House: Redistricting and a Progressive Challenge
North Carolina’s own redistricting battles are playing out in the 1st Congressional District, where a crowded Republican primary field is competing for the chance to take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis. The district was redrawn to be more conservative, putting Davis in a vulnerable position for November.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, faces progressive Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, 32, in another race testing whether voters want generational change and a more aggressive posture from their representatives.
Arkansas: Cotton Cruises, Governor’s Race Takes Shape
Arkansas is the quietest of the three states tonight, but there are still contests worth watching. Republican Sen. Tom Cotton faces two primary challengers in his bid for a third term but is expected to win easily. On the Democratic side, Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar and farmer Hallie Shoffner are competing for the right to challenge Cotton in November, though Arkansas voted for Trump by roughly 30 points in 2024.
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running unopposed in the Republican primary as she seeks a second term. Democrats will choose between state Sen. Fred Love and magazine publisher Supha Xayprasith-Mays.
How to Watch: MS NOW Primary Night Coverage
Rachel Maddow will anchor MS NOW’s primetime election coverage beginning at 9 PM ET, with the network’s full lineup providing analysis throughout the evening. Maddow serves as the network’s special event co-anchor, a role she’s held through multiple election cycles. She’ll be joined by Nicolle Wallace, Chris Hayes, Lawrence O’Donnell, Jen Psaki, Ari Melber, and Stephanie Ruhle.
MS NOW, which rebranded from MSNBC late last year as part of its separation from NBCUniversal, is treating tonight as a marquee event for its first midterm primary season under the new name. The network lost access to Steve Kornacki, the beloved data analyst who stayed with NBC, so expect a different feel at the big board.
When Do Polls Close?
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 PM ET, giving us the first results of the evening. Arkansas closes at 8:30 PM ET. Texas is split between two time zones, with polls closing at 8 PM ET in the eastern part of the state and 9 PM ET in the western part. Expect the first wave of meaningful results around 8 PM ET, with the Texas Senate races potentially going late into the evening, especially if a runoff is in play.
The Bigger Picture
Tonight is about more than individual races. It’s the first real voter verdict on the second Trump term, delivered against the backdrop of U.S. military strikes on Iran and an ongoing government shutdown. Both parties will be studying the results for signals about what works in November: Does the MAGA right have the muscle to take out establishment Republicans? Can Democrats compete in Texas? Will redistricting deliver the House seats Republicans drew for themselves?
The answers start rolling in tonight. Tune in to MS NOW for live coverage and results.