President Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday that oil prices would start “tumbling downward” right after the election, which is a remarkable thing for the party in power to promise eight weeks before one. It lands on top of a Focaldata-Financial Times poll putting his approval at 32%, the lowest in that tracker’s history, with just 17% approving of how he is handling the cost of living. That is the backdrop for Democrats now leading Senate polling in Texas and Alaska, states that last elected a Democratic senator in 1988 and 2008.
Most coverage is calling this one blue wave rolling over red states, and that framing is generous to the people who built it. Walk through the three states Democrats keep naming and you find something more specific than a national mood. In each one, a Republican decision opened the door, and in one of them Democrats are playing defense, not offense.
- Texas: Republicans picked the weaker nominee. Primary voters chose Attorney General Ken Paxton, impeached in 2023, over Sen. John Cornyn, who had never lost a statewide race, in the May runoff. State Rep. James Talarico now leads Paxton by three points in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, with 14% undecided, and the Cook Political Report has moved the race to Toss-up.
- Alaska: the voting system Republicans tried to kill survived. A 2024 ballot measure to repeal Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice general election failed by 664 votes. Under that system, former Rep. Mary Peltola took 49.5% to Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4% in last month’s top-four primary. Sullivan needs a majority in November, not a plurality.
- Kansas: the tariffs are on the ballot, and so is a governorship Democrats could lose. At Saturday’s State Fair debate, the Rev. Adam Hamilton called the administration’s beef imports from Mexico “a slap in the face” to Kansas cattle producers and hammered Sen. Roger Marshall for backing Trump’s tariffs. August polls had it within a point, but the newest, from co/efficient, puts Marshall up 49 to 44, and Cook still rates the seat Likely Republican. Meanwhile Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, and our read is that Trump-endorsed Senate President Ty Masterson starts as the favorite over state Sen. Cindy Holscher to take her seat.
A Wave Is Weather, and Weather Has No Author
That is exactly why the wave story suits Republicans. You cannot blame anyone for weather. You can blame a party for nominating Paxton, for defending tariffs in cattle country, and for a president who just told voters their relief is scheduled for after they vote.
Our view: Democrats are competitive in Texas and Alaska because of choices voters can see at the pump and on the ballot. The president handed his opponents their closing argument himself.
Kansas deserves honesty, though. Hamilton’s race is a reach. Holscher’s is a defense.
Oil could still fall before November. Trump has already said it won’t.