Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. That drought may finally be ending, and the man Democrats are betting on to do it is a 36-year-old former middle school teacher who once appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast and recently earned a Master of Divinity degree.
James Talarico, state representative from the Austin area, defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett on Tuesday night in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, capturing 53.1% of the vote to Crockett’s 45.6%, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s Office. The Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning.
It was the first major Democratic primary of the 2026 midterm season, and it played out like a proxy war over the soul of the party: big-tent populism versus base-energizing progressivism, electability math versus identity politics, a Christian seminarian versus a social media star who made Republicans visibly nervous. Both arguments had real merit. What settled it, in the end, was money and message discipline.
The Race That Had Everything
Let’s not sanitize what this primary became. By the final weeks, it was sharp-elbowed and personal. Crockett’s allies accused Talarico’s campaign of trading in racial and gender anxieties, framing the electability argument against her as a coded attack on a Black woman running in a state that has historically resisted both. A TikTok creator alleged Talarico had referred to 2024 Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man.” Talarico flatly denied it, saying he criticized Allred’s campaign strategy but would never attack anyone on the basis of race.
Meanwhile, a pro-Talarico super PAC, Lone Star Rising, ran ads warning Democrats that Crockett would lose in November, using the line “If she wins, we lose.” Crockett fired back with her own attack ads depicting Talarico alongside Greg Abbott and Donald Trump, arguing he fights for the rich and powerful rather than ordinary Texans.
What was remarkable was how ideologically identical the two candidates actually were. Both progressive on policy, both social media-fluent, both viewed as rising stars nationally. The entire race came down to a strategic argument: who can win Texas? Talarico made the bet that a faith-rooted, rural-courting, cross-partisan coalition can get there. Crockett bet that supercharging Democratic base turnout was the more honest and effective path.
Talarico’s fundraising answered the question decisively before a single vote was cast. He raised $20.7 million compared to Crockett’s $8.6 million, a gap that bought him airtime, organization, and the ability to go on offense even after Crockett entered the race in December and immediately scrambled the field.
The Colbert Clip That Changed the Primary
Talarico’s campaign got a significant boost from an unlikely source: a CBS broadcast that never happened. A planned appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert was pulled from the CBS broadcast, apparently due to equal-time concerns for his primary rivals. But the interview was posted to YouTube, where it racked up millions of views, giving Talarico a surge of national exposure and donations right at the start of early voting. Sometimes the content the networks won’t air is the best advertising you can buy.
His profile had already been elevated well before that. Last July, Talarico appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast, where Rogan encouraged him to run for president. Political watchers noticed immediately, not because the suggestion was serious, but because the optics of a Texas progressive comfortable enough to walk into that audience and make his case said something real about his strategy. This is a candidate who actually believes he can persuade people who are not already Democrats.
Dallas County: The Night’s Ugly Subplot
Election night itself was messy, and the messiness was not incidental. Dallas County, Crockett’s stronghold, had moved away from county-wide vote centers this cycle, reverting to precinct-specific voting. Hundreds of voters showed up to locations they believed were valid polling places and were turned away. A state judge ordered Dallas County polls to remain open until 9 p.m., two hours past the normal closing time. The Texas Supreme Court then ordered ballots cast after 7 p.m. in Dallas County to be segregated, pending further review. Similar confusion played out in Williamson County, north of Austin.
Crockett’s campaign announced plans to sue over the Dallas situation. She told supporters Tuesday night that there would be no results from Dallas County that evening. By Wednesday morning, however, she had called Talarico and conceded, posting on X: “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.”
That kind of concession statement, gracious and forward-looking, sets the table for a general election that will require every Democratic vote Texas can muster.
The Republican Chaos That Could Open a Door
Here is where the math gets genuinely interesting for Democrats. The Republican primary did not produce a winner either. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26 runoff after neither secured a majority in a three-way field. Trump, conspicuously, declined to endorse in the contest, though Senate Republicans and their official campaign arm backed Cornyn.
Cornyn, who called Crockett’s candidacy a “gift,” described Talarico’s potential nomination as “dangerous.” That tells you something. Cornyn and his allies believed Crockett was the easier target in November. They were openly rooting for her to win. The fact that she didn’t is, by the G.O.P.’s own logic, bad news for them.
If Paxton defeats Cornyn in the runoff, the calculus shifts further. A general election without an incumbent, against an attorney general who carries significant legal and political baggage, with Trump’s approval ratings softening and Latino voters potentially drifting back toward Democrats after a sharp rightward move in 2024, is a scenario Democrats would take. It is not a layup. But it is a real game.
Who Is James Talarico, Really?
Talarico is 36, an eighth-generation Texan, and a product of San Antonio public schools where he taught middle school before entering politics. He flipped a Trump-won Texas House district in 2018, which is either an impressive data point or an artifact of a wave year, depending on your cynicism level. He recently completed a Master of Divinity degree from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary, and his campaign rhetoric leans heavily into faith, framing economic populism in the language of Christian obligation rather than secular class warfare.
It is a deliberate calculation. Texas has a lot of voters who respond to that framing, including some who have been drifting away from the Republican Party without having anywhere obvious to land. Talarico is making a direct pitch to them. Whether it works at scale in a statewide general election is the bet Democrats in Texas are placing.
“We are not just trying to win an election,” he told supporters Tuesday night. “We are trying to fundamentally change the politics in this state and in this country.”
The Bigger Picture for 2026
Texas is one of four Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are eyeing if they want to retake the majority. The others are in Maine, North Carolina, and other states where the path is somewhat more conventional. Texas is the long shot in the group, but it is no longer a fantasy. Trump’s approval numbers have softened. The Latino swing of 2024 may be reversible, particularly if economic conditions deteriorate. And Talarico, whatever else you think of him, is a different kind of candidate than Texas Democrats have fielded in recent cycles.
The May 26 Republican runoff will tell us a great deal. If Paxton comes out of it as the nominee, the November race becomes legitimately competitive by almost any measure. If Cornyn survives, Democrats face the harder path of unseating an entrenched incumbent who knows how to run statewide.
Either way, the primary is over. Talarico is the nominee. Texas Democrats, for the first time in a long time, are not just hoping. They are organizing, spending, and betting. The question now is whether a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a generation is finally ready to do something surprising, and whether James Talarico is the person who can make that case to enough Texans to close the deal in November.