The United States and Israel launched the most significant joint military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq on Saturday, February 28, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and effectively decapitating the country’s military command structure.
Iran has responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the entire region, hitting Israel, US bases, and Gulf states including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan. As of Sunday morning, three US service members have been killed, at least 201 people are dead in Iran, and the conflict is still actively escalating.
This is a full breakdown of where things stand as of March 1, 2026.
The Strike That Changed Everything
Airstrikes began around 9:45 AM Tehran time on Saturday (1:15 AM Eastern), the first day of the Iranian workweek and during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Israel codenamed the operation “Roaring Lion.” The Pentagon is calling it “Operation Epic Fury.” A combination of US Tomahawk missiles launched from warships, HIMARS rocket launchers, one-way attack drones from the newly operational Task Force Scorpion Strike, and Israeli fighter jets were used in the assault.
The most consequential strike hit a meeting of Iran’s defense council in Tehran. CIA intelligence had identified the gathering and shared the information with Israeli counterparts, accelerating the attack timeline to capitalize on what officials described as a “target of opportunity.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86 years old and Iran’s supreme leader since 1989, was killed at his compound in Tehran’s Pasteur district. Iranian state television confirmed his death early Sunday morning.
But Khamenei was far from the only casualty among Iran’s leadership. The defense council strike also killed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi, Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour (who had only taken over after Israel killed his predecessor during last June’s 12-day war), longtime security establishment figure Ali Shamkhani, intelligence chief Saleh Asadi, Military Bureau head Mohammad Shirazi, and the heads of Iran’s nuclear weapons research organization SPND. CBS News reported intelligence sources indicated approximately 40 Iranian officials were killed or targeted in the first wave alone.
Israel’s air force says it dropped more than 1,200 munitions across 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The US military carried out nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Targets spanned Tehran, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Qom, Tabriz, Karaj, Bushehr, Shiraz, Ilam, Zanjan, Urmia, and more. In Tehran, strikes hit the Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Defence, the Atomic Energy Organization, the Parchin military complex, and the Tehran Revolutionary Court, which was destroyed.
The deadliest single incident: an Israeli strike on an elementary girls’ school in the southern city of Minab, with the death toll climbing to at least 148, many of them children. The Iranian Red Crescent Society has reported preliminary casualty figures of 201 people killed and at least 747 injured, with rescue operations ongoing.
Iran’s Retaliation Hits The Entire Region
Iran’s response has been sweeping and unprecedented in scope. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that “all American and Israeli assets and interests in the Middle East have become a legitimate target” with “no red lines after this aggression.” The IRGC announced it would launch “the most intense offensive operation in the history of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic.”
Here is where Iranian strikes have landed so far:
Israel: Iranian missiles struck the city of Beit Shemesh, roughly 19 miles west of Jerusalem, killing at least 9 people and wounding dozens. Explosions have been reported across northern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel declared a special state of emergency and closed all civilian airspace.
US Forces: As of 9:30 AM Eastern on March 1, US Central Command confirmed three American service members killed in action and five seriously wounded. Several others sustained shrapnel injuries and concussions. CENTCOM dismissed Iranian claims of hitting a US aircraft carrier as false and stated that “major combat operations continue.”
United Arab Emirates: Three killed, 58 injured. Iran launched 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and 541 drones toward the UAE. Most were intercepted, but 35 drones struck within UAE territory. Explosions were heard across Dubai. A Pakistani national was killed by falling debris.
Bahrain: Iranian missiles targeted the US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters. The international airport was hit by a drone, and residential buildings in Manama were struck by drones Saturday night.
Kuwait: Ali al-Salem Air Base was targeted by ballistic missiles, all intercepted. A drone hit Kuwait International Airport, damaging Terminal 1 and injuring employees. One person killed, 32 wounded total.
Saudi Arabia: Explosions heard in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia says attacks on its capital and eastern region were repelled. The kingdom condemned what it called “treacherous Iranian aggression.”
Jordan: Intercepted 49 drones and ballistic missiles with no casualties.
Qatar, Oman, Iraq: Qatar repelled multiple waves of Iranian attacks. Two drones targeted Oman’s Duqm port. An oil tanker with 15 Indian nationals aboard was struck off Oman’s coast. In Iraq, at least 2-3 people were killed in strikes, and Kataib Hezbollah threatened to begin attacking US bases.
Iran has also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which nearly 20% of global oil consumption passes daily. This single move, if enforced, could trigger the most significant energy supply disruption in decades.
Iran’s Leadership Vacuum And Internal Split
Iran quickly formed an interim leadership council as required by its constitution, comprised of President Masoud Pezeshkian (a moderate who survived the strikes), the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Guardian Council. Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official, accused the US and Israel of attempting to dismantle Iran and warned secessionist groups against taking action. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf threatened retaliation. Iran declared 40 days of public mourning.
But the situation inside Iran is deeply fractured. While state media broadcast pro-government mourning rallies, something far more remarkable was happening on the streets. As news of Khamenei’s death spread, Iranians in multiple cities poured into the streets to celebrate, cheering from rooftops, blowing whistles, and expressing what reporters described as “joy, shock and disbelief.” Videos from Karaj, Qazvin, Shiraz, Kermanshah, Isfahan, and Sanandaj showed widespread celebrations despite an internet blackout. Security forces were deployed and opened fire on some celebrants.
This mirrors the massive nationwide anti-government protests that erupted in late December 2025 and January 2026, driven by the economic collapse and plummeting rial. Those protests, the largest since the 1979 revolution, spread to over 100 cities before the regime violently suppressed them, with death toll estimates ranging wildly from 3,117 (Iran’s government figure) to as high as 32,000 (Trump’s claim). The underlying question now: does a wounded, decapitated regime have enough institutional strength to survive, or has the population reached a tipping point?
How We Got Here
The timeline matters for understanding why this happened now, and why many analysts are comparing it to Iraq 2003.
Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes in April and October 2024 before fighting a 12-day war in June 2025 where the US also struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump declared Iran’s nuclear program “obliterated,” but intelligence indicated Iran was rebuilding. Starting in late 2025, the US assembled the largest military force in the Middle East since Iraq, deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln, the USS Gerald R. Ford (the world’s largest aircraft carrier), and more than 10,000 additional troops.
Meanwhile, the US pursued nuclear negotiations with Iran through Omani mediation. The most recent round of talks ended in Switzerland just two days before the strikes, on Thursday, February 26, with Iran reportedly agreeing “never” to stockpile enriched uranium and the Omani foreign minister describing “significant” progress. A second round was scheduled for Geneva.
According to defense officials, the operation had been planned for months, with the launch date decided weeks ago, even as negotiations continued. Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev accused the US of using nuclear talks as “a cover-up before military operations.” The Chatham House think tank noted the parallel with 2003 is “difficult to ignore” but suggested this operation appears “far more ambitious than coercive diplomacy.”
Washington Is Split, But Not Along Clean Party Lines
The strikes were launched without congressional authorization, and the political response has been fierce. Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed the “Gang of Eight” congressional leaders before the operation, but there was no vote, no debate, and no public justification until Trump posted an 8-minute video at 2:30 AM.
Most Republicans have backed the operation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune praised it. Speaker Mike Johnson said Iran is “facing the severe consequences of its evil actions.” But not all Republicans are on board. Sen. Rand Paul opposed “another Presidential war,” quoting John Quincy Adams. Rep. Thomas Massie said flatly, “This is not America First,” and is working with Democrat Ro Khanna to force a congressional vote.
Most Democrats are sharply opposed. Senate Minority Leader Schumer demanded immediate classified briefings. Bernie Sanders called the operation “unconstitutional” and compared it to “the lies of Vietnam and Iraq.” Sen. Tim Kaine called it “a colossal mistake.” Sen. Ruben Gallego, a Marine veteran, said working-class kids should not pay the price for regime change. But Sen. John Fetterman broke ranks to back the strikes, saying Trump is “willing to do what’s right.”
A bipartisan War Powers Resolution is being prepared for votes next week in both chambers, though it would almost certainly be vetoed by Trump. An initial YouGov poll found only 33% of Americans approve of the strikes, while 45% disapprove.
Global Fallout And Market Chaos Ahead
The international response ranges from cautious support to outright condemnation. Russia’s Putin called Khamenei’s killing a “cynical murder.” China called it “a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty.” UK, France, and Germany urged a return to talks while the UK confirmed its forces are conducting “coordinated regional defensive operations.” Ukraine’s Zelenskyy supported the strikes, calling Iran “an accomplice of Putin” for supplying drones. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting, with Secretary-General Guterres calling for an immediate ceasefire.
Violence is spreading globally. In Pakistan, at least 9 people were killed and 50 wounded in Karachi after protesters tried to storm the US Consulate. A UN building was burned in Gilgit-Baltistan. Protests erupted in Iraq, Indian-administered Kashmir, London, Portland, and Washington DC, where the National Guard was deployed near the White House.
Markets are bracing for a brutal Monday open. Oil futures on 24/7 exchanges have already jumped nearly 5% to around $71.70 per barrel. Analysts at UBS warned of immediate upside pressure across the entire crude curve, with the biggest risk centered on the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply flows. If Iran enforces its closure threat, crude could spike above $100 per barrel, and a prolonged disruption could tip the global economy into recession. Gold has risen to approximately $5,334 per troy ounce. Bitcoin dropped initially before recovering to around $66,325. The Iranian rial has collapsed roughly 30% since January, hitting 1,749,500 per US dollar. Airlines have canceled hundreds of flights globally as Middle East airspace closures ripple outward, affecting travel as far as Brazil and Australia.
What Comes Next
As of Sunday morning, this is still an active, escalating military conflict. Israel announced it is striking “the heart of Tehran” in what it describes as the first wave under Operation Roaring Lion. Iran’s IRGC has promised another “large-scale” retaliatory operation. CENTCOM says “major combat operations continue.”
The critical questions now: Can Iran’s interim leadership council hold the country together, or does the regime fracture under the weight of a population that is simultaneously mourning and celebrating? Will Iran actually enforce the Strait of Hormuz closure, which would be an economic weapon of mass destruction aimed at the entire global economy? How do Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iranian proxies respond? Will Congress actually force a war powers vote, and does it matter if Trump vetoes it?
The Council on Foreign Relations noted that “the space between regime collapse and democratic consolidation is historically the most dangerous phase.” Chatham House warned that Trump’s strategy is “wholly predicated on the untested proposition that the Iranian people will quickly rise up, a huge gamble.” And the CFR’s Max Boot offered the simplest summary: “It’s easy to start a war. It’s very hard to end one successfully.”
This story is developing rapidly. We will continue updating as new information becomes available.
Last updated: March 1, 2026, 11:00 AM ET