Two of European football’s most decorated nations are going home.
Germany fell to Paraguay and the Netherlands lost to Morocco in back-to-back penalty shootouts on Monday night, producing what might be the most stunning double elimination in World Cup history. The 2026 tournament’s expanded 48-team format was supposed to protect traditional powers from early exits. Instead, it gave the underdogs a bigger stage to work on.
Paraguay Did Not Just Beat Germany. They Outworked Them.
The upset in Boston was not a fluke born of penalty-kick randomness. Paraguay controlled the first half, and Julio Enciso’s 42nd-minute header from a Matias Galarza cross reflected a team that had come to Gillette Stadium with an actual plan against a German side that looked disjointed from the opening whistle.
Germany equalized through Kai Havertz’s glancing header off a Florian Wirtz delivery in the second half, and the match ground through extra time at 1-1 after Germany had a goal controversially disallowed. But when the shootout arrived, Paraguay’s goalkeeper Orlando Gill was the better keeper. He saved penalties from both Havertz and Nick Woltemade, and after Jonathan Tah blazed his effort over the bar, Jose Canale stepped up and buried the winner. Paraguay 4, Germany 3 on penalties.
Al Jazeera called it one of the all-time great World Cup upsets. That is not hyperbole. Germany are four-time world champions. Paraguay had not won a World Cup knockout match in 16 years. The tactical gap between the two sides was supposed to be a chasm. On the night, it was nothing.
Morocco Broke Dutch Hearts in Stoppage Time
Hours later in Monterrey, the Netherlands looked to be safely through when Cody Gakpo finished a sharp counter-attack in the 72nd minute, capping a run that started with Crysencio Summerville’s driving surge forward. The Dutch controlled possession, managed the clock, and appeared to be doing everything right.
Then Issa Diop headed in Morocco’s equalizer in the 91st minute, and the entire dynamic flipped. A Netherlands side that had been coasting suddenly looked rattled, and extra time produced no breakthrough from either team.
The shootout was messy on both sides. Morocco’s El Aynaoui hit the crossbar on his attempt. But Dutch goalkeeper errors compounded the pressure, and when Morocco’s Yassine Bounou saved Summerville’s penalty, Ismael Saibari blasted home the winner to send Morocco through 3-2 on penalties. They will face Canada in Houston on Saturday.
What the Expanded Format Was Supposed to Prevent
FIFA’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams was sold partly as a safety net for established footballing nations. More group-stage matches, more chances to recover from a bad result, more runway to find form. Germany and the Netherlands both finished second in their groups and entered the Round of 32 as heavy favorites.
The theory collapsed because the format change also gave mid-tier nations more competitive matches before the knockouts. Paraguay and Morocco arrived at the Round of 32 having already won high-pressure games against quality opposition. They were match-sharp in a way that neither Germany nor the Netherlands managed to replicate, despite possessing squads with far higher individual market values.
For Germany specifically, the loss raises questions about the post-Euro 2024 project. The optimism that came from hosting a strong European Championship two years ago has curdled into genuine concern about generational transition. Manuel Neuer’s tournament is over, likely for the last time, and the midfield that was supposed to carry Germany into a new era could not break down a Paraguayan back line that defended with discipline and aggression for 120 minutes.
The Bigger Tournament Picture
The Round of 32 has been the most electric phase of the expanded World Cup so far. Brazil survived Japan 2-1 thanks to Gabriel Martinelli’s 95th-minute winner, a result that felt dramatic until Germany and the Netherlands provided a double dose of chaos.
The remaining bracket is wide open. With two European giants gone, sides like Morocco, Paraguay, and an increasingly confident host-nation contingent from the United States, Mexico, and Canada suddenly have realistic paths deeper into the tournament than most pre-competition models predicted.
Monday was a reminder that the World Cup’s magic has always lived in the space between reputation and performance. Germany and the Netherlands brought reputations to the pitch. Paraguay and Morocco brought performances.