Democrats delivered another blow to Republicans this weekend in the reddest of red states, flipping a Texas state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 and shrinking the GOP’s already paper-thin House majority.
The back-to-back victories Saturday add to a string of special election overperformances that have party strategists openly discussing the possibility of a Democratic wave in November.
Taylor Rehmet, a labor union leader and Air Force veteran, easily defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by more than 14 percentage points in the Fort Worth-area state Senate district. This isn’t a swing district or a purple suburban enclave. Republicans have held this seat for decades, and the four-term GOP incumbent won reelection handily every time he ran.
Trump Distances Himself from Loss He Actively Campaigned For
Here’s where it gets interesting. Trump posted on his social media platform three times in the final two days urging voters to back Wambsganss, calling her a successful entrepreneur and “an incredible supporter” of his Make America Great Again movement.
By Sunday, he was washing his hands of the whole thing.
“I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago. “It’s too bad, what can I say? I have nothing to do with it.”
Nothing says “winning” quite like publicly endorsing a candidate 48 hours before an election, watching them get crushed by double digits, then pretending you never knew them. The Republican candidate herself issued a more honest assessment: “The Democrats were energized. Too many Republicans stayed home.”
House Majority Gets Even Slimmer
Meanwhile, Democrat Christian Menefee won the special election runoff for Texas’s 18th Congressional District, paring House Republicans’ majority even further. While this Houston-based seat is heavily Democratic, it had been vacant for nearly a year following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner in March 2025. Texas Governor Greg Abbott waited six months before scheduling the special election, a delay Democrats criticized as a deliberate attempt to give the GOP more breathing room on difficult House votes.
The breathing room is gone.
The Numbers Republicans Cannot Ignore
Saturday’s results continue a pattern that should terrify GOP strategists. Democrats are running, on average, 13 points ahead of Kamala Harris‘s 2024 performance in special elections across the country. That’s not a statistical blip. That’s a structural shift in voter enthusiasm.
The winning streak includes governor races in Virginia and New Jersey last November, special election wins in Kentucky and Iowa, and more than 20 state legislative seat flips over the past year. Even in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election, where Republican Matt Van Epps won, the margin was close enough to give Democrats hope.
DNC Chairman Ken Martin called Rehmet’s Texas victory “a warning sign to Republicans across the country.” Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville went further, predicting a “wipeout” with Democrats picking up at least 25 House seats.
The GOP Exodus Has Already Begun
Perhaps the clearest indicator that Republicans themselves see the storm coming: two dozen House Republicans have already resigned or announced they won’t seek reelection in 2026. With only two exceptions in the past 20 years, this represents more departures from either party at this point in an election cycle than any comparable period.
The most high-profile departure was Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Congress entirely in January, a full year before her term was set to expire. There’s growing concern within the House Republican caucus that her announcement was a canary in the coal mine, with multiple resignations potentially following.
Rather than face what could be a “blue wave” favoring Democrats, many Republicans have apparently decided to fold up the beach chair and head home before the wave crashes.
What Is Driving Voter Backlash
Trump’s approval rating has settled at around 40%, according to recent polls, with a January AP-NORC survey finding that a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of foreign policy, trade negotiations, immigration, and the economy. That’s a remarkable achievement: losing public confidence on every major issue simultaneously.
Democrats now hold a consistent lead in generic ballot polling, with voters saying they’ll support Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans. The Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races in Democrats’ favor this week alone.
Rehmet’s campaign message focused on bread-and-butter issues: lowering costs, supporting public education, and protecting jobs. He was backed by national organizations including the DNC and VoteVets, which spent $500,000 on ads. But the fundamentals were already there: voters who supported Trump by 17 points 14 months ago are now backing Democrats by double digits.
The Map Problem
Republicans aren’t blind to the danger. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have pushed states to redraw political maps to the GOP’s advantage ahead of the midterms. Texas itself drew new congressional lines last summer at Trump’s urging, designed to create five more winnable Republican seats.
The problem is that gerrymandering only works when you can predict voter behavior. A 13-point swing toward Democrats can overwhelm even the most carefully crafted district boundaries. Seats considered safe suddenly become competitive. Competitive seats become unwinnable.
Rehmet will face Wambsganss again in November’s general election for the full four-year term. The Texas Legislature won’t reconvene until 2027, and the GOP still has a comfortable majority. But the symbolism of losing a Trump +17 district cannot be gerrymandered away.
Nine Months to November
The midterms are still nine months away. A lot can change. Economic conditions could improve. Trump’s approval could rebound. Democratic enthusiasm could wane.
But the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterms. When that party’s leader is underwater in approval ratings, actively campaigning for candidates who lose by double digits in his own strongholds, and watching members flee rather than face voters, “a lot can change” starts to sound more like wishful thinking than strategic analysis.
The common Republican refrain right now is “there’s still time.” As any political consultant will tell you, that’s something losing campaigns say.