The Bombs Fell, But the Uranium Remained
In the aftermath of last weekend’s US airstrikes on Iran’s main nuclear sites, a quiet but consequential truth is emerging: Iran’s most sensitive uranium stockpile appears to have survived largely unscathed.
According to preliminary intelligence shared with European governments, the 408 kilograms of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not sitting in one vulnerable spot, but had been distributed across multiple locations before the bombs fell. This revelation, confirmed by two European officials, is already reshaping the conversation in Western capitals about what, if anything, was actually accomplished by the strikes.
The Fordow Illusion
The Fordow facility, carved deep into a mountain near Qom, was a primary target. Satellite images now show its tunnel entrances sealed and pockmarked by the impact of 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. Yet, the uranium that so many feared was on the verge of being weaponized was not there. Instead, it had been quietly moved—an operation that, according to one European official, was “not as logistically daunting as some in Washington might imagine.” The uranium, enough for several nuclear warheads if further enriched, can fit in a single truck container. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) lost track of the material just days into the conflict, a fact that has left inspectors and diplomats alike in a state of anxious uncertainty.
The Politics of Perception
President Trump, never one to shy away from a bold claim, declared on social media that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. But the intelligence now circulating in Brussels and other European capitals tells a different story. The Pentagon’s own preliminary assessment, leaked to the press, suggested the program had been set back by only a matter of months—a finding Trump publicly dismissed. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dodged questions about whether the uranium had been moved, insisting he had seen no evidence to the contrary, but also offering little reassurance [Financial Times].
What’s Really at Stake
The real risk, as nuclear experts and diplomats see it, is not just the physical survival of Iran’s uranium stockpile, but the loss of transparency. With IAEA inspectors unable to access the sites, and with Iran’s government vowing to take “special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials,” the world is left to guess at the true state of the program. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA’s director-general, told French radio that while Iran’s nuclear infrastructure had suffered “enormous damage,” any talk of its complete destruction was “overblown.” The program, he implied, is battered but far from broken.
Diplomacy in Limbo
The strikes have also thrown diplomatic efforts into disarray. Before the bombs fell, there were quiet talks between Washington and Tehran about curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Now, European policy is “on hold,” with officials waiting for a clear signal from the US about what comes next. Trump has hinted at new talks, but also suggested that a deal may no longer be necessary. One European diplomat described the current US approach as “completely erratic,” adding, “For now, we are doing nothing.”
The View from Tehran
Iranian officials, for their part, have been quick to claim victory. President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled a willingness to return to negotiations, but only on Iran’s terms. The government insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, a claim met with deep skepticism in the West. Yet, in the wake of the strikes, Iran’s ability to move and protect its most sensitive materials has become a new point of pride—and a new challenge for those hoping to contain its nuclear ambitions.
A Moment of Uncertainty
The story of Iran’s uranium is, at its core, a story about uncertainty. The bombs may have cratered the earth above Fordow and Natanz, but the real action happened in the shadows, in the days and hours before the first missile was launched. As European officials sift through the intelligence, and as the IAEA waits for access, the world is left to wonder: What, exactly, did the strikes achieve? And what comes next, now that the uranium is still out there, somewhere, waiting?