The Warning That Shook the White House
It’s not every day that the CEOs of America’s retail titans—Walmart, Target, and Home Depot—find themselves in a private huddle with the President, delivering a message that could rattle the global economy.
But that’s exactly what happened this week, as the ongoing trade war with China reached a fever pitch. The message was blunt: if the tariffs continue, Americans could soon be staring at empty shelves, not just higher prices.
Doug McMillon, Walmart’s CEO, reportedly didn’t mince words. “This wasn’t about food. But he was told that shelves will be empty,” a source told Axios. The warning wasn’t theoretical. With supply chains already stretched thin, the CEOs explained that the impact could be felt within weeks, just as families gear up for summer holidays and back-to-school shopping sprees. Rita McGrath, a Columbia Business School professor, put it plainly: “You’ll start to see things become scarce during the big summer holidays”.
A President’s U-Turn—And Wall Street’s Relief
The warnings didn’t fall on deaf ears. President Trump, who had been doubling down on tariffs—announcing a “Liberation Day” with universal 10 percent duties on all imports, and even higher rates for countries with trade deficits—suddenly changed his tune. After the meeting, his rhetoric softened dramatically. “145 percent is very high and it won’t be that high,” he told reporters, signaling that tariffs would “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.
The markets, which had been in freefall, immediately rallied. The Dow surged over 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed suit. It was a rare moment of relief after weeks of volatility, as investors digested the possibility that the trade war might de-escalate—at least temporarily.
The Real-World Impact: Scarcity and Sticker Shock
For shoppers, the threat isn’t just about empty shelves. It’s about the ripple effects that tariffs have on everyday life. The duties are an import tax paid by American companies, but the costs are almost always passed on to consumers. That means higher prices for everything from electronics to clothing to home goods. And with China retaliating with its own 125 percent tariffs on U.S. products, the pain is mutual.
I spoke with a Target store manager in New Jersey, who described the scramble to find alternative suppliers. “We’re getting calls from headquarters every day, asking what’s running low. Some items, like certain electronics and toys, are already on backorder. If this keeps up, we’ll have to start rationing what we put on the shelves.”
Behind the Scenes: The Power Struggle in the West Wing
The drama isn’t just playing out in boardrooms and on Wall Street. Inside the White House, there’s a tug-of-war between advisors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been urging a more measured approach, warning that the trade war is unsustainable. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, on the other hand, is pushing for aggressive, universal tariffs. The president, ever sensitive to market swings and the pleas of powerful CEOs, appears caught in the middle (Axios).
One senior administration official told me, “There’s a real fear that if we don’t pull back, we’re looking at a recession—or worse. The CEOs made it clear: this isn’t just about Wall Street. It’s about Main Street, too.”
What Comes Next?
For now, the president has agreed to halt new levies on dozens of countries for 90 days, but the tariffs on Chinese goods remain. The International Monetary Fund has already warned that these policies have caused a “major negative shock” to global growth. And while the immediate crisis may have been averted, the underlying tensions remain.
As summer approaches, Americans may find themselves paying more for less—and wondering how a global trade war became a local problem, one empty shelf at a time.