The alarm bells are ringing, emails are flooding in, and everyone is in full-blown panic mode. The latest headlines, the dire poll numbers, Trump’s supposed rise—it’s enough to send people spiraling.
Hold on. Take a deep breath. We’ve been here before. This is the part of the election cycle that breeds anxiety—the phase where media narratives tilt toward fear, and the polls start driving everyone mad. Sure, Biden stepping down gave us a jolt of optimism, and Kamala’s campaign ignited some hope. But now? Now we’re back to the usual chaos. It’s not unexpected—it’s election season as usual. Pundits are chomping at the bit over poll numbers, while our side is sinking into worry and despair.
Here’s my advice: STOP. OBSESSING. OVER. THE. POLLS.
What’s that? “But Mark, the race is tied at 48-48!” I hear you. But I’m telling you, let it go.
Polls Don’t Predict the Outcome—People Do
Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Back on October 16, 1984, the New York Times ran a story that painted a grim picture for Reagan. After a shaky debate, his once-commanding lead over Walter Mondale seemed to be collapsing. His lead had shrunk from 13 points down to just 9%, and the media was all over it. “The race has tightened!” they screamed. “Mondale has a shot!” they cheered.
Guess what? Reagan went on to crush Mondale, winning 49 out of 50 states. One of the most massive landslides in U.S. political history—and the polls that said it was close? Completely irrelevant.
Then there’s 1992. Polls leading up to Election Day showed George H.W. Bush gaining ground on Bill Clinton, to the point where the media was forecasting a nail-biter. Bush even had his Hollywood pals like Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigning for him, believing he had a real shot.
What happened? Clinton won by six points and wiped the floor with Bush in the electoral college.
Are you starting to see the pattern?
History Is Full of “Poll Failures”
Let’s fast-forward to the year 2000. As Election Day approached, experts and analysts confidently predicted Al Gore’s victory. Gore, they said, was going to win up to 60% of the vote. Poll after poll, expert after expert, declared the race all but over. The only thing left was the formalities.
Well, we all know how that turned out. Gore may have technically won the popular vote, but we still ended up with George W. Bush in the White House. The “experts” were wrong. Again.
And then came 2004. Remember those infamous exit polls that had half the country convinced John Kerry was about to oust Bush? The numbers came in during the afternoon and even caused seasoned politicians like Susan Collins to throw in the towel, convinced it was over.
Except it wasn’t. Bush won re-election comfortably.
And if you think that’s all ancient history, let’s talk about 2016. The polls, the experts, the pundits—they all told us Hillary Clinton was a lock. She had it in the bag, right up until she didn’t. Trump shocked the world. Once again, the pollsters got it wrong.
Then, in 2022, the media was preparing for a “red wave” to sweep away Democratic control. The polls backed it up. Headlines screamed that a Republican surge was coming.
It didn’t.
In all of these cases, the lesson is clear: Polls are not reality. They are snapshots of a moment, not a crystal ball for Election Day.
It’s Not the Polls, It’s the Work We Do
So, what does that mean for us right now, in 2024? It means that all this fretting over the latest poll numbers is wasted energy. The only thing that matters between now and Election Day is what we do on the ground. It’s about action, not prediction.
Trump is a dangerous opponent, no doubt about it. He’s ruthless, and he’s mastered the art of manipulating media narratives and mobilizing his base. But that doesn’t mean he’s unstoppable. What it means is that we can’t sit back and hope that the polls save us. They won’t.
Winning this election—winning it big—requires work. Every day between now and November 5th, we need to be out there hustling. Phone banking, door-knocking, volunteering at campaign offices, helping people get to early voting, making sure every possible vote is cast.
This is a battle for the future of the country, and it’s going to take a relentless effort from all of us. Every phone call, every conversation, every vote counts. We can win this, but only if we put in the sweat and the time.
No Time for Hopium—Time for Action
I’m not here to peddle false hope. This isn’t about “hopium,” that feel-good drug that makes us think everything is fine when it’s not. These next three weeks won’t be easy, and they shouldn’t be. The stakes are too high.
We know Trump is a political mastermind. He only needs the smallest shift in public opinion to edge out a victory, just like he did in 2016. That’s why we can’t afford to be complacent. We’ve got to act like everything is on the line—because it is.
So, what can we do? The answer is simple: we get out the vote. Our power lies in numbers, and it’s up to each of us to mobilize those numbers. The key is turning non-voters into voters. We need to find those people who’ve given up on politics, who don’t see the point of voting, and convince them that this year, their vote matters.
It’s not as hard as you think. Each of us can bring three non-voters with us to the polls. Find them. Talk to them. Tell them why this matters to you and why their vote could change everything. Even if they don’t care about the system, they care about you. Get them to show up, just this once.
Focus on What We Can Control
The media will keep bombarding us with poll numbers and predictions, but we don’t need to pay attention. Turn it off. Ignore the chatter. We live in a different world now—a world where polls can’t capture the complexity of our political landscape.
The only thing that will determine this election is the work we put in over the next 21 days. Let’s make sure that on November 5th, we don’t look back with regret, wishing we had done more. Let’s make sure we win this election—not because the polls say we will, but because we outworked the other side.
The polls? They’re noise. The work? That’s what wins elections.
Now, let’s go do it.