When New York announced Monday that a child in Lewis County had died in the state’s measles outbreak, the first such death there in more than 30 years, NBC’s report gave readers the state’s case count, Pennsylvania’s death toll and the national case count, and never gave the one number the federal government keeps for measles deaths this year: three.
- New York health officials said they were “deeply saddened by the death of a child in Lewis County associated with the ongoing measles outbreak.” The state has not released the child’s age, sex or vaccination status. It has 178 cases this year, 15 of them in Lewis County, and Gov. Kathy Hochul declared an emergency in October.
- Pennsylvania counts six deaths in an outbreak of 1,433 cases. Five were confirmed by its health department as of Oct. 19, and a sixth was announced by the Franklin County coroner on Oct. 12, with the department still reviewing it.
- The CDC’s measles page, last updated Oct. 30, shows 4,852 confirmed cases as of Oct. 29 and three deaths, with an asterisk.
Three Against Seven
That is at least seven deaths reported by state and local officials against three on the federal page. Seven is a floor, not a total: the CDC has not said which state its third death occurred in, so some of its three may already sit inside Pennsylvania’s six. If they all do, the federal page captures at most 43 percent of the deaths officials have reported (3 divided by 7). If none do, there are ten. The gap is narrower than it was in September, when we reported that the page listed none against Pennsylvania’s four, but narrower is not closed.
| Date | Pennsylvania | New York | CDC page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 21 | 4 confirmed by the state | 0 | 0, with a note that available information “does not establish whether measles caused or contributed to the deaths” |
| Oct. 12 | 5 confirmed, plus a sixth announced by the Franklin County coroner | 0 | 2 |
| Oct. 20 | 5 confirmed as of Oct. 19 | 0 | 3 |
| Nov. 2 to 3 | 6 reported | 1 | 3, page last updated Oct. 30 |
Why the Federal Number Runs on Its Own Clock
The CDC changed the rule. After Pennsylvania announced two deaths on Aug. 25, the CDC added them to its tracker, removed them, and posted a note saying available information did not establish whether measles caused or contributed to the deaths. Current and former officials told US media, including the New York Times, that CDC Director Erica Schwartz ordered them left out of the weekly update. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has faced Congress over the outbreaks, said in a post on X that the state’s announcement “may even have been altogether fabricated by one of the Governor’s hopeful staffers.” Pennsylvania’s count has since tripled, from two to six.
The CDC now counts a death when the National Center for Health Statistics verifies measles as the underlying cause on a death certificate, which is how its third death arrived on Oct. 20, rather than relying on state health departments. The CDC’s page says it is working on a replacement standard:
This work is intended to promote consistent classification and reporting of measles deaths across jurisdictions.
What the Data Do and Do Not Show
A real methodological dispute exists, and it is worth saying so. The sixth Pennsylvania death is a hard case: a 39-year-old Franklin County woman with several underlying health conditions, including a measles diagnosis that had been treated, whom the coroner said met the state’s definition of a measles-associated death. A certificate could reasonably list another underlying cause for a death like that. The CDC is entitled to that debate.
The data do not support the larger story, though, that the dispute is only about edge cases. The deaths the CDC removed in August were two unvaccinated Lancaster County residents whom the state says its epidemiologists investigated thoroughly, and the federal page listed none for weeks while the state counted four. The data also do not show that the number is falling anywhere: the CDC’s 4,852 cases through Oct. 29 are already more than double the 2,289 it recorded in all of 2025, with two months of 2026 left.
Print Both Numbers
We think the CDC should publish two lines on the same page, each labeled: deaths NCHS has certified, and deaths states report as measles-associated. A page that carries one figure and a footnote saying it is “subject to change” is not a count a parent in Lewis County can use, and with the HHS secretary on record suggesting a state’s announcement may have been fabricated, the choice of which number to print is not neutral. Two MMR doses are about 97 percent protective, and a federal page that understates how often measles kills makes that case harder to make.
The child in Lewis County is one of at least seven. The federal page says three. When it updates, watch whether the number moves, and whether anyone explains why.