Nithya Raman, a Los Angeles City Council member who belongs to the Democratic Socialists of America, is projected to become mayor of the country’s second-largest city by ousting Karen Bass after one term. Decision Desk HQ made the call Wednesday evening with Raman ahead by about 26,000 of 784,262 votes counted, NBC News projected her win at 12:44 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, and as of Thursday afternoon neither candidate had spoken publicly about the result since election night.
The call. Decision Desk HQ, NBC News and CNN have projected Raman the winner. The latest tally has her ahead 429,450 to 394,796, or 52.1 percent to 47.9 percent.
The count. NBC’s decision desk puts 75.7 percent of the expected vote in. The county plans to certify by November 27, and ballots postmarked by Election Day are still arriving.
The Late Ballots Are Going One Way
A projection is somebody’s judgment, so we checked it against the tallies. ABC7 published 405,193 votes for Raman and 379,069 for Bass on Wednesday afternoon, a lead of 26,124. The count NBC Los Angeles reported for Thursday morning read 429,450 to 394,796, a lead of 34,654. Subtract the first tally from the second and the 39,984 ballots added in between split 24,257 for Raman and 15,727 for Bass, which is 60.7 percent to 39.3 percent.
If NBC’s estimate that 75.7 percent of the vote is in holds, about 264,600 ballots remain. To erase a 34,654-vote deficit Bass would need 56.5 percent of them, a 13-point win, from the same stream of late ballots that just went to Raman by 21 points. That is our arithmetic from two public tallies and one outlet’s estimate of the denominator, so read the 56.5 percent as a rough guide and not a forecast. Analysts say stronger support from younger voters could be helping fuel Raman’s numbers, which is the segment ABC7 aired Wednesday night.
An Incumbent Under 35 Percent in June
The June primary is the document the “socialist beats Democrat” framing skips. Bass took 292,593 votes, 34.3 percent, to Raman’s 247,781 and the 217,977 for Spencer Pratt, a former reality television star, according to the results table. That means 65.7 percent of primary voters picked someone other than the sitting mayor. Since then Bass has added 102,203 votes and Raman 181,669, on a count that is still short of finished.
We read this as a referendum on a mayor first and an ideological event second, and the primary is why: nearly two of every three June voters had already chosen someone else, and the only open question was whom. The label will draw the headlines, since Raman gives democratic socialists a mayor in both of the country’s two largest cities, but she campaigned on being independent of the organization in her council decisions. What she ran on was Bass’s record. Bass was in Ghana for a presidential inauguration when the Palisades fire started, a fire that killed 12 people and burned nearly 7,000 structures, and more than 45,000 people in the city live outdoors or in unstable housing.
On election night Raman said only this:
“Today all across America, voters demanded change.”
Counting Runs Through November 27
The county has a calendar, and it is the one that matters. L.A. County expects daily updates, usually around 5 p.m., through Nov. 13, with further counts on Nov. 17, 19, 25 and 27. It plans to certify by Nov. 27, and the state certifies on Dec. 11. Ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days are counted, which is why a 75.7 percent count can still move.
Whoever holds the title on Dec. 11 inherits a $14 billion budget, a police department that has shrunk to fewer than 8,700 officers from 10,000, and the city’s preparations for the 2028 Olympics. If the count holds, Raman takes that job with a four-point margin and a campaign built on the charge that Bass was reluctant to move forward with the transformative policy change the city needs.