Democrats will control the House of Representatives, and NBC News projects a majority of at least 244 seats. The night’s real message came from the Senate map, where Democrats flipped seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas before polls had closed in the West.
Donald Trump spent the evening insisting none of it was about him. His own voters disagree.
What Trump said
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” (Truth Social, about 10:40 p.m. ET)
What voters said
About six in 10 called Trump a factor in their House vote, and his approval sat at 38 percent in the national exit poll.
The House Number, Done the Arithmetic Way
Republicans went in holding 219 seats to 214.
A Democratic floor of 244 leaves Republicans no more than 191. That is a loss of at least 28 seats, and a Democratic gain of at least 30.
It would be the largest Democratic House since the 257 seats the party won in 2008. NBC’s desk put it the same way: the biggest majority in nearly two decades.
The Flips Came Where Nobody Was Looking
Most of the pre-election chatter was about Maine, Michigan and Ohio. The first three flips came from the South instead.
Roy Cooper took the North Carolina seat Thom Tillis left open, beating Michael Whatley at 8:30 p.m. ET, CBS News projected. We covered Cooper’s win as it landed.
South Carolina was the shock. Annie Andrews beat Trump-backed Darline Graham, 983,690 votes to 916,010 with 93 percent of the expected vote counted. That is a 67,680-vote lead, 3.4 points, in a state that went to Trump by double digits.
Then Texas fell. James Talarico beat Ken Paxton, the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988. Paxton ran as Trump’s man with Elon Musk’s super PAC money behind him, and he still became the first Republican to lose a Texas Senate race in 38 years.
The Senate Math, Seat by Seat
Democrats started at 47. Three flips put them at 50. With JD Vance breaking ties, they need 51.
CBS rates Kansas lean Democratic. Win it, hold Michigan’s open seat against Mike Rogers, and Democrats reach 51 without Maine, Ohio or Alaska.
That is the path. Michigan is the hinge. Abdul El-Sayed losing there would close it, and that race was still a toss-up late Tuesday.
Republicans have not flipped a single Democratic seat in the races called so far.
He Was on the Ballot
Trump’s 38 percent approval is on pace for a record low for a president at a midterm, CBS reported from the exit poll. Roughly three-quarters of voters were at least dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
Earlier in the night he told CBS he has “the ultimate power” and that “it’s called ‘veto.'” That is the plan now. Govern by refusal.
Our read: this was a referendum on MAGA, and MAGA lost it in the states built to protect it. A president who needs his party to absorb a 28-seat loss and three Southern Senate seats while he calls it someone else’s election is telling you he has no plan to change course. The voters already priced that in.
What to Watch Before Sunrise
Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa remain uncalled. So does Kansas, the seat that decides whether Democrats need any of the toss-ups at all.
Our live results page is tracking every call. The House is settled. The Senate comes down to whether one open seat in Michigan holds.